NEW YORK -- President George Bush wrapped himselfin the American flag and won a major victory last week as U.S. votersgave control of both houses of Congress to the Republican party. Inmid-term elections, the party in power almost always fares badly, butthis year an electorate, gripped by fear of terrorism, and whippedinto war fever by high-voltage propaganda, voted Republican. Thankyou Osama and Saddam.
One poignant photo said it all: Georgia's defeatedDemocratic senator, Max Cleland, sitting in a wheelchair, missingboth legs and an arm lost in combat in Vietnam. This highly decoratedhero was defeated by a Vietnam war draft-dodger who had the audacityto accuse Cleland of being "unpatriotic" after the senatorcourageously voted against giving Bush unlimited war-related powers.I do not recall a more shameful moment in American politics.
Bush's victory is clearly a mandate to proceedwith his crusade against Iraq. Preparations for war are in anadvanced stage. The U.S. has been quietly moving heavy armour andmechanized units from Europe to the Mideast. Three divisionequivalents and a Marine heavy brigade are now in theatre. An armadaof U.S. warplanes is assembling around Iraq, which is bombed almostdaily. U.S. special forces are operating in northern Iraq, and, alongwith Israeli scout units, in Iraq's western desert near the importantH2 airbase. The war could begin as early as mid-December if there isno coup against Saddam Hussein.
But for all the propaganda about wicked Saddam,Iraq is not the main objective for the small but powerful coterie ofPentagon hardliners driving the Bush administration's nationalsecurity policy. Nor is it for their intellectual and emotional peersin Israel's right-wing Likud party. The real target of the coming waris Iran, which Israel views as its principal and most dangerousenemy. Iraq merely serves as a pretext to whip America into a warfrenzy and to justify insertion of large numbers of U.S. troops intoMesopotamia.
A minor threat
Israeli defence officials have long dismisseddemolished Iraq as a minor threat, even though it likely has betweensix and 18 old Scud missiles hidden away. Saddam did not use chemicalweapons in 1991 for fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation. Israel nowhas the world's most advanced anti-missile system, Arrow, with twobatteries operational, and numerous batteries of the latest U.S.Patriot missiles in place.
The prevailing view in the Israeli military isthat Iraq will be quickly defeated by U.S. forces, and then likelysplit into two or three cantons. Israel's North American supporters,however, are still being given the party line that Israel is inmortal danger from Iraq.
Iran is a different story. Iran is expected toproduce a few nuclear weapons within five years to counter Israel'slarge nuclear arsenal, and is developing medium-range missiles,Shahab-3s and -4s, that can easily reach Tel Aviv.
With 68 million people and a growing industrialbase, Iran is seen by Israel as a serious threat and major Mideastgeopolitical rival. Both nations have their eye on Iraq's vast oilreserves.
Israel's newly appointed hardline defenceminister, former air force chief Shaul Mofaz, who was born in Iran,has previously threatened to attack Iran's nuclear installations.Thanks to long-range F-15Is supplied by the U.S., plus cruise andballistic missiles, Israel can strike targets all over Iran. Thisweek, Israel's grand strategy was clearly revealed for the firsttime, though barely noticed by North American media, as PrimeMinister Ariel Sharon called for an invasion of Iran "the day after"Iraq is crushed.
Elections in Israel at the end of January willprobably return Sharon's Likud party and its extreme rightist alliesto power, this time with a strengthened position. Ferociouscompetition for party leadership between the iron-fisted Sharon andthe even more hardline Benjamin Netanyahu suggests a further move tothe far right, zero chance for peace with Palestinians, and a moreaggressive policy towards Israel's unloving neighbours.
In the U.S., Pentagon hardliners are drawing upplans to invade Iran once Iraq and its oil are "liberated." They hopecivil war will erupt in Iran, which is riven by bitterly hostilefactions, after which a pro-U.S. regime will take power. If this doesnot occur, then Iraq-based U.S. forces will be ideally positioned toattack Iran. Or, they could just as well move west and invade Syria,another of Israel's most bitter enemies.
Israel's Likudniks thirst for revenge againstSyria - and also Iran - for supporting Lebanon's Hezbollah movement,which drove Israeli forces from Lebanon.
Pentagon superhawk Richard Perle, told the TVOprogram Diplomatic Immunity that the U.S. was prepared to attackSyria, Iran, and Lebanon.
By February or March, the U.S. media will likelybe flooded with dire warnings about the threat to the world fromIran. Israel's American lobby will turn its guns from Iraq to Iran."Links" will surely be "discovered" between Iran and al-Qaida. Thecookie-cutter pattern that worked for whipping up war psychosisagainst Iraq should work just as well against Iran, Syria or SaudiArabia - and win the next national election.
Eric can be reached by e-mail atmargolis@foreigncorrespondent.com.
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