THOUSANDS of Germans clapped and chanted theirapproval in the northern port of Lübeck as Gerhard Schrödertook his campaign against the Iraq war to the people.
The Chancellor has taken the lead in the electionpolls and the reason seems to be plain: popular backing for hisdefiance of US war plans. The Emnid polling institute said that, withonly 11 days left to the general election, 39 per cent of Germanswould vote for the Social Democrats, compared with the 38 per centthat would vote for Edmund Stoiber's Christian Democrats.
As a result, the Chancellor is turning hiselection campaigning into something akin to a pacifist revivalmovement.
For the first time since the 1980s, the SocialDemocrats are playing the anti-American card and, astonishingly giventhe outpouring of sympathy after September 11, most Germans arefollowing the Chancellor's lead. "
"What kind of friendship is it that does notpermit disagreement over the existential question of war and peace?"Herr Schröder asked the crowd. "It cannot be that a frienddemands something and we immediately have to do as we are told:that's subordination and that's not my thing, not my thing at all."
This statement earned big applause. It has been asimilar story across the country: the Germans seem ready to vote fora politician who stands up to President Bush.
President Saddam Hussein does not figure in theChancellor's speeches, nor did he mention the Iraqi leader in histelevision debate on Sunday. Instead, he speaks of Germany's greatcontribution to the Afghan campaign, "second only to the UnitedStates, so we don't have to go around in sackcloth and ashes &emdash;we're doing our bit". In Berlin though, government strategists arepuzzling a way out of the corner into which the Chancellor has boxedhimself.
He has emphasised that he is against a war withIraq &emdash; "Never under my leadership" &emdash; even if there is aUnited Nations mandate.
Herr Schröder also seems to rule out afinancial contribution to such a campaign. Plainly, a common Europeanline on Iraq has become impossible and if the Chancellor wins theelection, US-German relations will be strained.
However, these strategists have mapped out aface-saving plan. Soon after the election, Germany will announce itsreadiness to take over as the lead nation in running theinternational protection force in Afghanistan.
Turkey's mandate ends in December and the Germanswill ask them to extend for two more months.
By February 2003, the Germans, with the Dutch,would be in a position to take an active role in Afghanistan. Thiswould permit British and Turkish troops there to be redeployed in anIraq war.
Even so, there is pressure for the Afghanprotection force to take on more active combat functions, a dangerousmission that would run contrary to the pacifist sentiments beingaired.
The Chancellor is treading the path of otherSocial Democrats who have, since the war, cut a fine line betweensupporting and criticising US administrations. Herr Schröder'smodel, in Lübeck at least, is Willy Brandt, who was Chancellorin 1969. Lübeck was Herr Brandt's town and the speeches werelaced with references to him. Herr Brandt introduced a conciliatorypolicy towards Eastern Europe, and attracted suspicion from the WhiteHouse at that time.
Herr Schröder seems to be willing to risksomething similar in return for national popularity. His Lübeckspeech contained much left-wing rhetoric, such as: "I want to fightfor the rights of those who were not born with silver spoons in theirmouths." But the big applause was reserved for when he shifted toIraq. Even the young Christian Democratic subversives who had beendistributing vitamin C tablets "courtesy of Edmund Stoiber, to givenew strength to Germany", suddenly melted away: the carnival part ofthe election campaign was over.